Investigating Stability and Linearity of a

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Starting from a linear error correction model (ECM) the stability and linearity of a German M1 money demand function are investigated, applying smooth transition regression techniques. Using seasonally unadjusted quarterly data from 1961(1) to 1990(2) it is found that the money demand equation considered is both linear and stable. After extending the sampling period until 1995(4) a clear structural instability due to the monetary uniication on 1 July 1990 is found and subsequently modelled. A nonlinear speciication for the extended period is presented and discussed. Social Sciences. We thank Rolf Tschernig and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Responsibility for any errors and shortcomings in the paper remains ours.

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تاریخ انتشار 1998